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Speakasyoufind

5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 89

Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y

#12

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped forward from reappearance run when second in 19f handicap at Clonmel in June. Below form both starts since, though, seeming set to drop away when falling 2 out at Downpatrick (2¾m) 7 weeks ago. Drop back in trip might not be in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kilbeggan 25/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f200y Goo 15425/07C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 11/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m6f218y Gd 160BHA98 @ Galway 26/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 98 · 2m11y Goo 147 · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 98 par26/1098OR 98BHA98 @ Punchestown 13/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m7f187y Hvy 151 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 98 parBHA95 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 95 · 2m110y Hvy 163 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 95 par2/1295OR 95C8 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 95 · 2m Sft 151 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 95 parBHA91 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 91 · 2m3f116y Goo 147 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 91 par14/0591OR 91BHA89 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 89 · 2m3f61y Goo 146 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 89 parBHA91 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 91 · 2m4f85y Goo 143 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 91 par16/0791OR 91projClass-projected finish: 12th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA900
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA916th6th0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA892nd2nd0
2026-05-14ClonmelBHA919th9th0
2026-01-15FairyhouseBHA930
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0713/1114/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20258th50/10%53%+0.53
11/08/20258th25/10%13%+0.13
26/10/20258th40/10%13%+0.13
13/11/20257th25/10%14%+0.14
02/12/20258th50/10%53%+0.53
13/12/202514th66/10%24%+0.24
14/05/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
05/06/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
16/07/20266th7/163%44%-0.19