17

Bigcitydreams

5yo Mare · 10-13

Roscommon · Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 48y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cheap purchase. Pulled up in a point prior to offering little on debut for top yard at Kilbeggan (19f). Cheekpieces now reached for. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1593/09C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1939% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength7%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20267th40/10%14%+0.14