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Born Believing

5yo Mare · 11-7

Roscommon · Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 48y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner (1-1) who belied market weakness to follow up in a bumper at Cork (2m). Subsequently found emphasis on speed against her when well-held fifth in Grade 3 bumper at Punchestown. Should appreciate switch to longer trip/hurdling on return (sister to fairly useful hurdler Born Famous).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength30%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: +7.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1656/04C?1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m132y Yie 165 · HIGHER CLASS29/041projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29Punchestown15th-4th+7
2026-04-06Cork?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0429/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1989% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +52.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/04/20265th66/10%73%+0.73