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Brave Lady

5yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 104

Roscommon · Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 48y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bright start over hurdles when runner-up at Kilbeggan (2m) in July. Built on that returning to calmer waters at Ballinrobe (2¼m) last time, finishing 4½ lengths second in mares maiden. Bred to stay this longer trip and should be in the hunt if improving for it.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength93%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 2m175y Gd 1622/08C?1 @ Aintree 09/04/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR - · 2m209y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS9/041C0 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 16528/05C?C0 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m90y Goo 1587/06C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 15310/07C81 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m110y Gd 149 · HIGHER CLASS28/071C8 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 2m1f215y Goo 15311/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Ballinrobe?2nd2nd0
2026-07-28Galway16th-2th+7
2026-07-10Kilbeggan?2nd2nd0
2026-06-07Punchestown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-28Limerick?2nd2nd0
2026-04-09Aintree119th10th+8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/087/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20253rd9/153%86%+0.33
09/04/202619th66/10%5%+0.05
28/05/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
07/06/20262nd16/583%89%+0.06
10/07/20262nd5/287%90%+0.03
28/07/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
11/09/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14