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Forceonmyown

7yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 103

Roscommon · Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 48y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair bumper winner. Ran to a similar level without success in mares maiden hurdles last season. Hasn't improved for the switch to handicaps/longer trips more recently. Something to find at the weights back down in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Limerick 26/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m Yie 16526/12C?C0 @ Punchestown 13/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m85y Sft 165C8 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR - · 2m4f Hvy 16127/12C8C8 @ Punchestown 12/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m3f73y Sft 161C8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 2m Sft 1594/02C8BHA110 @ Leopardstown 03/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 110 · 2m2f72y Sft 156 · below its mark03/03/2026 · OR 110 parBHA109 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 109 · 2m7f Yie 162 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 109 par14/04109OR 109BHA107 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 107 · 3m60y Goo 153 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 107 parC8 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 106 · 3m50y Gd 161 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 106 par28/08C8OR 106projClass-projected finish: 14th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Wexford?8th8th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10712th15th−3
2026-04-14ClonmelBHA1098th12th−3
2026-03-03LeopardstownBHA1105th9th−3
2026-02-04Punchestown?4th4th0
2026-01-12Punchestown?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1212/0114/0428/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 12-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20242nd9/276%91%+0.15
13/01/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
27/12/20256th7/282%71%-0.11
12/01/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
04/02/20264th14/126%79%+0.52
03/03/20265th12/137%67%+0.30
14/04/20268th10/147%50%+0.03
02/08/202612th33/10%35%+0.35
28/08/20268th13/266%36%-0.29