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14

Mystic Rose

4yo Filly · 10-10

Roscommon · Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 48y

#14

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden staying handicapper at a modest level on the Flat. Hardly appeals as an obvious type switched to hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m3f90y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 59 par11/0459OR 59BHA57 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m5f160y Sft 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 57 parBHA54 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 54 · 2m40y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 54 par31/0554OR 54BHA52 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 52 parBHA51 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 51 · 1m6f109y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 51 par2/0751OR 51BHA50 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 50 parBHA50 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m5f56y Yie 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 50 par5/0850OR 50BHA50 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 50 · 1m6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 50 parBHA48 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 48 · 1m4f194y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 48 par4/0948OR 48projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA4810th6th+3
2026-08-27NavanBHA505th1st+3
2026-08-05SligoBHA5012th8th+3
2026-07-12DundalkBHA503rd-1th+3
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA515th2nd+3
2026-06-07NavanBHA525th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/047/065/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish19th of 190% of fieldRange 9-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 19th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20264th28/10%73%+0.73
22/04/202610th22/10%25%+0.25
31/05/20267th22/10%40%+0.40
07/06/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
02/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
12/07/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
05/08/202612th17/255%15%-0.40
27/08/20265th20/10%81%+0.81
04/09/202610th7/163%18%-0.45