11
Ardgillan
6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Roscommon · Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 4f 48y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 10.1)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | BHA80 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | ? | 22th | 22th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Gowran Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2024 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 13/11/2025 | 13th | 150/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/12/2025 | 22nd | 250/1 | 0% | 16% | +0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |