17
Blackwater Soldier
9yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 82
Roscommon · Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 4f 48y
#15
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Ballinrobe | BHA82 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2023-10-21 | Limerick | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2023-09-30 | Gowran Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2023-05-18 | Tipperary | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2023-05-04 | Tipperary | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2023 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 18/05/2023 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/09/2023 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 21/10/2023 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |