12
Bruise Hill
5yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Roscommon · Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 4f 48y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA82 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA82 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Cork | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1972% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 15th | 200/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 14/04/2026 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 28/07/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |