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8

Duce Bigalow

7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 89

Roscommon · Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 4f 48y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Knocking firmly at the door over fences for Seamus Neville last winter. Easily made a winning start for current yard in handicap hurdle at Down Royal (3m) in April, doing it in good style from the front. Drop back in trip no issue and may defy a 10-lb rise if ready to roll.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 03/12/2024 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 2m3f97y Yie 1583/12C8BHA86 @ Punchestown 24/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 86 · 2m4f23y Hvy 154 · below its mark24/02/2025 · OR 86 parBHA85 @ Down Royal 17/03/2025 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 85 · 2m4f Gd 154 · below its mark17/03/2025 · OR 85 par17/0385OR 85BHA79 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 79 · 2m5f100y Sft 166 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 79 parBHA79 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 2m Hvy 147 · below its mark15/12/2025 · OR 79 par15/1279OR 79BHA82 @ Punchestown 11/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 82 · 2m3f115y Sft 153 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 82 parBHA82 @ Navan 17/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 82 · 3m Sft 152 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 82 par17/0182OR 82BHA84 @ Fairyhouse 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 84 · 2m7f165y Hvy 140 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 84 parBHA79 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 79 · 3m Goo 147 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 79 par12/0479OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA791st1st0
2026-02-21FairyhouseBHA842nd2nd0
2026-01-17NavanBHA822nd2nd0
2026-01-11PunchestownBHA825th5th0
2025-12-15NaasBHA792nd2nd0
2025-11-25TramoreBHA795th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1225/1117/0112/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength88%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/202412th200/10%35%+0.35
24/02/20257th20/10%57%+0.57
17/03/202511th18/15%44%+0.39
25/11/20255th12/137%43%+0.06
15/12/20252nd11/271%89%+0.18
11/01/20265th4/179%60%-0.19
17/01/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
21/02/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
12/04/20261st13/266%100%+0.34