5
Kellys Corner
5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94
Roscommon · Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 4f 48y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gowran Park | BHA96 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Punchestown | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-03 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1939% of fieldRange 12-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -11.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/11/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |