8
Adaliz
6yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 101
Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA101 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA101 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA102 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Roscommon | BHA103 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Tipperary | BHA95 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 15/05/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/06/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 05/08/2025 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 47% | +0.20 |
| 14/07/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |