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Charlie Luciano

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 113

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#1

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

76%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on track when winning extended 25f handicap at Kilbeggan in July and made the frame on his next couple of starts. Found his run of good form coming to a halt at same track earlier in the month and now reverts to hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Tramore 17/08/2024 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 58 · 2m80y Yie 137 · beat its mark17/08/2024 · OR 58 par17/0858OR 58BHA120 @ Kilbeggan 06/09/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 120 · 2m4f40y Yie 160 · below its mark06/09/2024 · OR 120 parBHA121 @ Gowran Park 05/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 121 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark05/10/2024 · OR 121 par5/10121OR 121BHA125 @ Navan 17/11/2024 · Pos 20th of 23 · OR 125 · 2m6f100y Yie 163 · below its mark17/11/2024 · OR 125 parBHA117 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 117 · 2m7f22y Goo 163 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 117 par14/10117OR 117BHA114 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 114 · 2m4f80y Yie 160 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 114 parBHA113 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 113 · 3m1f80y Goo 166 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 113 par10/07113OR 113BHA119 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 119 · 2m6f111y Goo 145 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 119 parBHA119 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 119 · 3m1f180y Goo 166 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 119 par21/08119OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA1180
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA1192nd2nd0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA1194th4th0
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA1131st1st0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA1144th4th0
2025-11-04FairyhouseBHA1190

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0817/1110/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +7.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20249th5/174%27%-0.46
06/09/20243rd4/179%71%-0.08
05/10/20242nd11/486%80%-0.06
17/11/202420th50/10%14%+0.14
14/10/202512th80/10%31%+0.31
31/05/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
10/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
31/07/20264th14/126%84%+0.58
21/08/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01