IvyArcIvyArc
12

Free Flowing

10yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 96

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#11

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Seemingly retains little ability and others preferred. First-time tongue tie applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Ballinrobe 14/04/2023 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m1f98y Sft 15814/04C8C0 @ Punchestown 26/04/2023 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m3f180y Yie 157C8 @ Galway 03/10/2023 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m160y Sft 1663/10C8C8 @ Galway 29/10/2023 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f156y Hvy 164BHA109 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 109 · 2m4f Hvy 164 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 109 par27/12109OR 109C0 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f165y Hvy 168BHA105 @ Clonmel 26/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 105 · 2m76y Hvy 166 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 105 par26/02105OR 105C0 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 166BHA100 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 100 · 3m1f170y Yie 167 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 100 par9/06100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-09SligoBHA10015th15th0
2026-03-26Clonmel?6th6th0
2026-02-26ClonmelBHA1053rd3rd0
2026-02-15Punchestown?9th9th0
2025-12-27LimerickBHA1094th4th0
2023-10-29Galway?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0429/1026/029/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength23%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/04/20233rd8/1397%82%-0.15
26/04/20237th66/10%45%+0.45
03/10/20231st17/255%100%+0.45
29/10/20236th9/276%29%-0.48
27/12/20254th125/10%0%0.00
15/02/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
26/02/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
26/03/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
09/06/202615th50/10%7%+0.07