9
Ilbdare
6yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 101
Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA101 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA102 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA98 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | BHA98 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Sligo | BHA96 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/06/2025 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |
| 07/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 01/01/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/05/2026 | 13th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 30% | -0.28 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |