2
Milan Forth
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 116
Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA121 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA119 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |