7
Paradise Lost
7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 104
Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA67 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | BHA68 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gowran Park | BHA104 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.58 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 20/10/2025 | 15th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.68 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 76% | +0.71 |