5
Positive Thinker
9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 108
Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | Gowran Park | BHA111 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Naas | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Cork | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-30 | Roscommon | BHA113 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-04-01 | Fairyhouse | BHA113 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength20%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 11/02/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 10/03/2024 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 01/04/2024 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 30/09/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 03/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 09/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 30/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.09 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |