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13

Roc My Haarth

7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 94

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden over hurdles but made it first time lucky over fences in 14-runner handicap at Clonmel (23f, soft) in April. Back hurdling and shaped as if better for the run faced with an inadequate test after 5 months off at Galway earlier in the month. Considered back at 3m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA91 @ Gowran Park 08/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 91 · 2m4f Sft 147 · below its mark08/03/2025 · OR 91 par8/0391OR 91BHA92 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 92 · 2m7f180y Goo 160 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 92 parBHA92 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 92 · 2m6f170y Yie 160 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 92 par2/1092OR 92BHA92 @ Limerick 18/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 92 · 3m100y Hvy 160 · below its mark18/11/2025 · OR 92 parBHA95 @ Limerick 28/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 95 · 3m Sft 141 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 95 par28/1295OR 95C8 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 94 · 2m6f148y Hvy 141 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 94 parBHA95 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 95 · 2m6f170y Hvy 163 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 95 par12/0395OR 95BHA94 @ Clonmel 02/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 94 · 2m7f55y Sft 150 · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 94 parBHA94 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 94 · 2m160y Yie 154 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 94 par7/0994OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA946th6th0
2026-04-02ClonmelBHA941st1st0
2026-03-12LimerickBHA956th6th0
2026-02-15Punchestown?2nd2nd0
2026-02-05ThurlesBHA940
2025-12-28LimerickBHA9510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0318/1112/037/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/03/20253rd4/179%87%+0.08
03/04/202514th11/271%19%-0.52
02/10/20257th6/168%54%-0.15
18/11/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
28/12/202510th7/282%40%-0.42
15/02/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
12/03/20266th10/382%64%-0.18
02/04/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
07/09/20266th16/116%74%+0.58