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9yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 99

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got back to winning ways reverted to hurdling in 13-runner event at Kilbeggan (25f) earlier this month and placed both outings since, most recently from 5 lb out of the weights when fourth of 14 at Listowel (3m, good to soft) 5 days ago. Can regain the winning thread.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 95 · 3m1f170y Yie 162 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 95 par9/0695OR 95BHA93 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 93 · 2m6f120y Gd 161 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 93 parBHA96 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 96 · 3m1f121y Gd 152 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 96 par12/0796OR 96BHA96 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 96 · 2m4f85y Goo 148 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 96 parBHA100 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 100 · 2m6f111y Goo 156 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 100 par2/08100OR 100BHA99 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 99 · 2m7f100y Goo 167 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 99 parBHA95 @ Kilbeggan 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 95 · 3m200y Goo 149 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 95 par4/0995OR 95BHA97 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 2m6f111y Sft 149 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 97 parBHA99 @ Listowel 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 99 · 3m Goo 140 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 99 par23/0999OR 99projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23ListowelBHA994th4th0
2026-09-07GalwayBHA973rd3rd0
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA951st1st0
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA995th5th0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10010th10th0
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA964th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0616/074/0923/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20268th13/266%53%-0.12
02/07/20262nd11/142%94%+0.52
12/07/202610th11/271%36%-0.35
16/07/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
02/08/202610th16/116%47%+0.31
20/08/20265th20/10%64%+0.64
04/09/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
07/09/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04
23/09/20264th22/10%77%+0.77