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Thornleigh Frank

9yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 118

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a remarkable hat-trick at 2023 Galway Festival for Mark Fahey. Had his issues since but shaped encouragingly when third in first-time cheekpieces at Ballinrobe (2¾m) in late-May. Shaped as if needing run at Killarney (23f, good) 7 weeks on and has since moved yards again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C12.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Ballinrobe 30/05/2023 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m40y Goo 15830/05C8BHA94 @ Downpatrick 13/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 94 · 2m1f165y Gd 161 · beat its mark13/07/2023 · OR 94 parBHA105 @ Kilbeggan 21/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 105 · 2m2f Sft 164 · beat its mark21/07/2023 · OR 105 par21/07105OR 105BHA120 @ Galway 02/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 120 · 2m6f111y Goo 164 · beat its mark02/08/2023 · OR 120 parBHA124 @ Fairyhouse 22/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 124 · 2m4f Sft 155 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 124 par22/02124OR 124BHA124 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 124 · 2m4f110y Yie 160 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 124 parBHA123 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 123 · 2m3f37y Yie 159 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 123 par31/12123OR 123BHA120 @ Ballinrobe 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 120 · 2m6f100y Goo 156 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 120 parBHA120 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 120 · 2m6f180y Goo 158 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 120 par17/07120OR 120projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA1208th8th0
2026-05-25BallinrobeBHA1203rd3rd0
2025-12-31PunchestownBHA1239th9th0
2025-11-29FairyhouseBHA1246th6th0
2025-02-22FairyhouseBHA1249th9th0
2023-08-02GalwayBHA1201st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/052/0831/1217/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20237th10/147%57%+0.10
13/07/20231st10/382%100%+0.18
21/07/20231st11/486%100%+0.14
02/08/20231st7/163%100%+0.37
22/02/20259th20/10%47%+0.47
29/11/20256th28/10%74%+0.74
31/12/20259th22/10%27%+0.27
25/05/20263rd18/15%87%+0.81
17/07/20268th6/168%53%-0.15