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6

Watching The Clock

5yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 106

Roscommon · Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle · 3m 25y

#9

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made second handicap start a winning one at Gowran (2m) last October and ran best race after 3 months off when second of 13 at Wexford (3m, good to soft) back in May. Nudged up 3 lb but every chance she will be in the shake-up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 08/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m125y Goo 1548/06C8C8 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 148BHA94 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 94 · 2m4f107y Gd 158 · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 94 par20/0894OR 94BHA93 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 93 · 2m80y Sft 148 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 93 parBHA103 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 103 · 2m46y Goo 158 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 103 par14/10103OR 103BHA104 @ Navan 17/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 104 · 2m4f50y Sft 158 · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 104 parBHA104 @ Fairyhouse 01/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 104 · 2m4f Yie 161 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 104 par1/01104OR 104BHA104 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 104 · 2m7f Sft 160 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 104 parBHA103 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 103 · 3m Goo 160 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 103 par16/05103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-02-04PunchestownBHA1045th5th0
2026-01-01FairyhouseBHA1045th5th0
2025-11-17NavanBHA1044th4th0
2025-10-14PunchestownBHA1034th4th0
2025-10-03Gowran ParkBHA931st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/063/101/0116/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20255th7/282%69%-0.12
24/07/20254th22/10%73%+0.73
20/08/20258th15/261%36%-0.24
03/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
14/10/20254th9/276%81%+0.05
17/11/20254th3/184%75%-0.09
01/01/20265th10/147%83%+0.35
04/02/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
16/05/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26