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7

Chosen Shant

10yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 100

Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Both hurdles wins at Wexford and has scored in 2 handicap chases there this season, the latest over 19f last month. Back hurdling, again ran well when sixth of 18 in mares handicap at Listowel 8 days ago. Not taken lightly back up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA102 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 102 · 2m159y Goo 148 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 102 par14/05102OR 102C8 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 153 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 86 parBHA99 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m Yie 158 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 99 par1/0699OR 99BHA86 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 86 · 2m100y Sft 143 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 86 parBHA85 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 85 · 2m Goo 153 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 85 par30/0685OR 85BHA91 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 91 · 1m7f110y Gd 159 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 91 parBHA98 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m180y Goo 168 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 98 par7/0898OR 98BHA93 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 2m3f100y Yie 153 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 93 parBHA97 @ Listowel 20/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 97 · 2m2f100y Goo 143 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 97 par20/0997OR 97projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20ListowelBHA976th6th0
2026-08-28WexfordBHA931st1st0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA985th5th0
2026-07-22WexfordBHA912nd2nd0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA851st1st0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA867th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/058/067/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20267th66/10%40%+0.40
16/05/20264th150/10%25%+0.25
01/06/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
08/06/20267th16/116%54%+0.38
30/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
22/07/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
07/08/20265th11/486%69%-0.16
28/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
20/09/20266th12/137%71%+0.34