2
Jolie Jewel
7yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 112
Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Ballinrobe | BHA114 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA114 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA116 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Leopardstown | BHA116 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 19% | -0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/12/2025 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |