IvyArcIvyArc
8

Ladies Well

6yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 98

Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has taken well to chasing this season, winning 23f handicaps at Killarney in July and August (runner-up at this course in between). Shaped as if still in top form when fourth of 16 at Ballinrobe last time, left with too much to do. Strong contender.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA79 @ Ballinrobe 25/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 79 · 2m6f61y Goo 145 · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 79 par25/0879OR 79BHA84 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 2m6f Goo 152 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 84 parBHA84 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 84 · 2m6f154y Goo 152 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 84 par16/1084OR 84BHA83 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 83 · 3m30y Goo 151 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 90 · 2m7f96y Gd 159 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 90 par24/055OR 90BHA81 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 81 · 2m7f Goo 149 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 81 parBHA89 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 89 · 2m5f141y Sft 162 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 89 par4/0889OR 89BHA90 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 2m7f100y Goo 158 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 90 parBHA98 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 98 · 2m7f67y Yie 166 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 98 par11/0998OR 98projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA984th4th0
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA901st1st0
2026-08-04RoscommonBHA892nd2nd0
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA811st1st0
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA810
2026-05-24Kelso52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0831/104/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
26/09/20256th7/163%67%+0.04
16/10/202512th8/158%35%-0.23
31/10/20258th28/10%63%+0.63
24/05/20262nd7/163%75%+0.12
17/07/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
04/08/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
20/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
11/09/20264th3/184%80%-0.04