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10

Miss Lia

6yo Mare · 10-0 · OR 88

Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up 4 times in handicap hurdles in 2025/26. Yet to fire this season, though, including on second chase start when mid-field in handicap at Downpatrick (24f) in June. Fared little better back hurdling at the same venue last month. 2 lb out of the weights here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Wexford 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 90 · 2m4f Goo 148 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 90 par17/0590OR 90BHA87 @ Wexford 08/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 87 · 2m4f100y Goo 155 · below its mark08/08/2025 · OR 87 parBHA89 @ Wexford 29/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 89 · 2m3f100y Goo 145 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 89 par29/0889OR 89BHA89 @ Killarney 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 89 · 2m6f180y Yie 157 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 89 parBHA91 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 91 · 2m5f Sft 147 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 91 par25/1191OR 91BHA92 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 92 · 2m5f185y Yie 148 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 92 parBHA94 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 94 · 2m4f Goo 150 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 94 par16/0594OR 94BHA89 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 89 · 2m7f150y Gd 157 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 parBHA93 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 93 · 2m5f180y Gd 141 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 93 par9/0893OR 93projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA937th7th0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA896th6th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA9410th10th0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA922nd2nd0
2026-02-21FairyhouseBHA920
2025-11-25TramoreBHA912nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/055/1016/059/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength12%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20256th13/266%55%-0.11
08/08/20252nd11/271%92%+0.21
29/08/20255th6/168%60%-0.08
05/10/20252nd6/168%91%+0.22
25/11/20252nd4/179%92%+0.13
29/03/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
16/05/202610th10/147%31%-0.17
13/06/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
09/08/20267th20/10%33%+0.33