1
Nastya
7yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 116
Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA117 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA118 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA114 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | BHA114 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Ballinrobe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 26/12/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 28/01/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 16/05/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |