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5

Neon Diamond

7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 110

Roscommon · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Handicap Chase · 2m 5f 131y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bumper/hurdles winner and ran to a similar level when making the frame in mares maidens on first 2 starts over fences. Form has been mixed in 3 subsequent outings, though, not jumping well when pulled up in handicap at Perth (3m) in June.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 27/12/2024 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 16127/12C8C8 @ Clonmel 13/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 161C8 @ Killarney 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 106 · 2m6f180y Yie 161 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 106 par18/07C8OR 106BHA118 @ Downpatrick 10/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 118 · 2m5f180y Goo 166 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 118 par1 @ Punchestown 11/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 118 · 2m3f Sft 151 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 118 par11/121OR 118C0 @ Naas 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m4f29y Sft 161C0 @ Thurles 05/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m2f22y Sft 1615/03C?BHA116 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 116 · 2m4f63y Sft 161 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 116 parBHA115 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 115 · 3m2f50y Goo 162 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 115 par12/04115OR 115projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-07Perth40
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA1155th5th0
2026-03-26ClonmelBHA1165th5th0
2026-03-05Thurles?2nd2nd0
2026-01-09Naas?4th4th0
2025-12-11Punchestown15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1210/085/0312/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20247th14/126%63%+0.36
13/02/20253rd8/158%88%+0.30
18/07/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
10/08/20254th15/890%0%-0.90
11/12/20255th12/137%20%-0.17
09/01/20264th33/10%50%+0.50
05/03/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
26/03/20265th9/153%20%-0.33
12/04/20265th14/126%56%+0.29