IvyArcIvyArc
5

Long Story

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Roscommon · GavinLynchRacing.com Flat Race · 1m 7f 135y

#16

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a bit more than on debut when seventh of 14 in bumper at Kilbeggan in June. However, he's failed to repeat that effort in 2 subsequent outings, remote fifth of 11 at the same course last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m13y Goo 16826/05C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f200y Gd 16815/06C?C0 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f119y Gd 16821/07C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 16821/08C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2026-07-21Ballinrobe?9th9th0
2026-06-15Kilbeggan?7th7th0
2026-05-26Ballinrobe?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0515/0621/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20267th66/10%25%+0.25
15/06/20267th80/10%54%+0.54
21/07/20269th20/10%33%+0.33
21/08/20265th33/10%60%+0.60