8

The Last Line

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Roscommon · GavinLynchRacing.com Flat Race · 1m 7f 135y

#1

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

44%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well on debut when only narrowly denied in 14-runner bumper at Cork back in July 2024, closing all the way to the line. Has been away from the track for over 2 years since, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 05/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 1645/07C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2024-07-05Cork?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-5 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength7%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20242nd4/179%92%+0.13