My Cajun Lady

6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 73

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.9

Today:

Class gap: +0.6

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Thistledown	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-18	Thistledown	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-05-04	Thistledown	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-04-17	Tampa Bay Downs	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-03-14	Tampa Bay Downs	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-02-25	Tampa Bay Downs	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/12/2025	5th	7/2	82%	33%	-0.48
03/01/2026	6th	25/1	0%	17%	+0.17
30/01/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	71%	+0.56
25/02/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
14/03/2026	10th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/04/2026	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/05/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
18/05/2026	7th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74
07/09/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18