4
Starcourt
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |