1
Tale Of Lemonbelle
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 75
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |