3
Vodkatini
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 24/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |