3
Aces Mischief
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |