5
Coasting By
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |