4
Deep Star
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 22/03/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |