1
Guns And Ships
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |