Destiny's Tot
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 46
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 22% | -0.38 |