Instant Winner

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 36

Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-29	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-09	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-15	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-25	Thistledown	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-11	Thistledown	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-04-01	Mahoning Valley	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▲

Strength93%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/01/2026	5th	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35
21/01/2026	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
20/02/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
01/04/2026	9th	25/1	0%	20%	+0.20
11/05/2026	7th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
25/05/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	75%	-0.07
15/06/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	83%	-0.02
09/07/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	83%	+0.02
29/07/2026	2nd	2/1	89%	86%	-0.04