Ravishing Ruby

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 38

Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength83%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Thistledown	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-07-29	Thistledown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-09	Thistledown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-15	Thistledown	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-28	Thistledown	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-05-11	Thistledown	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength85%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/03/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	86%	+0.33
01/04/2026	11th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74
22/04/2026	5th	13/2	66%	33%	-0.32
11/05/2026	5th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
28/05/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02
15/06/2026	4th	7/4	91%	50%	-0.41
09/07/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	67%	-0.12
29/07/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	71%	-0.11
31/08/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	75%	+0.22