Twotwentyfivesouth
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 58
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 30/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |