Check The Facts
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-17 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2023-12-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2023-11-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2023 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 24/10/2023 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 22/11/2023 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/12/2023 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/07/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |