Lucky Victor
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 13th | 9th | +3 |
| 2024-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2024-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-10-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 26/08/2024 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 16/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/10/2024 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 23/10/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 06/11/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/11/2024 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |