1
Paint The Town
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |