4
Venture On
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |