2
Holidays Army Brat
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength81%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |