4
Mystical Mobil
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 47
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |