1
Penny's Treasure
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |