5
Atlas Falls
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |